Demographer Yoram Ettinger tells Arutz-7 that Palestinian Authority data about its growth spurt are distorted, untrue, and wildly contradict World Bank figures. He says there are 2.6 million Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, and not the 3.8 million reported by the PA.
The PA's Central Bureau of Statistics released over the weekend the results of its 2007 census, showing that its population increased by more than 30% over the course of the past ten years. Ettinger doesn't buy it.
"It is very astonishing," he said. "The census that was ostensibly carried out in 2007 has findings that are almost exactly the same as the predictions made by the PA's CBS ten years ago - even though over this period there were many dramatic and unexpected developments politically, economically, militarily, and sociologically. There was a war against terrorism, a Fatah-Hamas war, a great increase in unemployment, more planned parenthood, fewer teenage pregnancies, more divorces, more people going abroad to work - and yet still there were no changes from the forecast of ten years ago. This is very hard to accept."
"Moreover," Ettinger continued, "the PA's findings directly contrast with what the World Bank has found. The World Bank says there have been both a great drop in fertility and a great increase in emigration. For instance, there is a full 32% disparity between the PA's prediction ten years ago of how many 6-year-olds there would be now and those there actually are; instead of a growth of 24%, there was actually a drop of 8%... The '97 census even counted Jerusalem Arabs twice - once as Israeli-Arabs by Israel, and once by the PA's CBS as if they lived in the PA... The PA's numbers are exaggerated by approximately 53% over the true numbers."
Ettinger's conclusion? "I would say that not only is there no room for fatality or fear that the Arabs are close to a majority, but there is actually a solid and large Jewish majority of 67% in the area between the Mediterranean and the Jordan (not including Gaza), and the momentum is growing in our favor... The demographic issue is no longer a 'problem,' but a 'strategic asset.'"
Another example provided by Ettinger concerns the birthrate during the period from 1995 to 2007: "Israeli-Arab births during this 12-year period remained stable at around 39,000, while at the same time, the Jewish birthrate grew by 40% - from 80,000 to 112,000 a year. This is a pretty good indication of what can be expected here in the next one or two generations."
The true numbers, Ettinger says, are as follows: "Within the Green Line [pre-1967 Israel], there are currently 1.4 million Arabs, compared with almost 6 million Jews. In Judea and Samaria, there are 1.5 million Arabs, and not 2.3 million, as they claim. In Gaza, there are 1.1 million, and not 1.5 million."
Similar to CAIR's unsubstantiated claims of a 9 million strong Muslims voting bloc in the US, the PA intentionally distorts the true number of Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza to terrify Israel. This is contrary to the facts. As Ettinger said, there has been a drop in Arab fertility and a huge increase in emigration from the Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Earlier this year, the Mufti of Jerusalem issued a fatwa against emigration from "Palestine", in the hopes of styming the flood of migrants.
As we saw a week or two ago, about a quarter of the population of Gaza rushed out to Egypt the second that the security wall was destroyed. Clearly, the population wants to get out of that hellhole. Israel has a golden opportunity here. How fast do you imagine the Arabs running out if they would be provided with compensation and plane tickets to the other Arab states or to the West?
Israel's military leaders are already calling for a full-scale invasion of Gaza, and yet, this seems eerily deja-vu. The IDF will sweep into Gaza, do its utmost to prevent civilian casualties by putting its soldiers in needless danger, and after the loss of tens of good Jewish boys (G-d forbid), the mission will be declared completed and the IDF will sail out. Israel will invade and pull out, invade and pull out. (Didn't anybody ever tell Israel that pulling out before the job is done leaves both unsatisfied?) This is because the corrupt anti-Jewish leadership has no solutions. Because Israel tries its hardest to run away from its Jewish identity and act Western, it is stuck in an existensial crisis where it cannot properly defend itself. If Israel believed in its own right to the land, it would have no problem telling the Arabs that they had better ship out. Gaza's population is extremely young and most would like the chance at a better life than rocket attacks, terrorist thugs, electrical shortages and lack of basic civil infrastructure. Most of them would jump at the chance to leave.
It is plain to all except the leaders of the US and Israel that there will never be peace between Israel and the Arabs, especially since they are motivated by their bloodthirsty, warmongering religion to slaughter every Jew that they can find. The only solution is separation. Israel spends billions of dollars each year on useless "defensive" equipment like fences, bunkers, security guards at every entrance, etc. That money would be much better spent if it were used to create a fund for Arab emmigration.
"And ye shall drive out the inhabitants of the land, and dwell therein; for unto you have I given the land to possess it." -Numbers 33:53. There is no alternative.
Cross-posted to Goat's Barnyard